Study shows crime prevention tool decreased violent crime 24% in project areas

We implemented an innovative crime-fighting strategy one year ago, and it has reduced violent crime in our project areas by 24 percent, according to a new analysis by Rutgers University.

We worked with criminal justice scholars from Rutgers to implement an evidence-based strategy that helps determine where crime or other problems are most likely to occur: Risk-Based Policing (RBP). RBP is a crime prevention and reduction tool that builds on the analytical technique Risk Terrain Modeling to look not at where crime has already occurred but features of the physical environment that will cause crime. A key aspect of RBP is it focuses on places, not people. It also does not take into account historical crime or arrest data, making it different from previous hot spot policing efforts. RBP overlays a number of geographic data to show police (and their partners!) where a crime problem is most likely to emerge, allowing preventive measures to be taken in that area. Known as “risk factors,” examples include liquor and convenience stores, vacant properties, properties with code violations, parks, bus stops, and many more. They may be completely innocuous on their own, but the risk of crime can increase dramatically if many are in the same general vicinity.

RBP gave us an idea of areas in the city at highest risk for violent crime. Seeing these areas of concentrated risk areas allow police, city government, and other partners to martial resources to address issues. For example, police can perform liquor license checks at businesses selling alcohol in high-risk areas and request follow-up from Regulated Industries. Police can also share advice and recommendations to property owners about how to reduce risk of crime through means such as better lighting or security cameras. In addition, KCPD members share RBP data with municipal departments to help enforce code violations or fix broken streetlights. This helps everyone share the burden of true public safety when compared to traditional enforcement-focused measures. In turn, RBP ultimately results in a more holistic service to the public.

Using objective RBP data as a guide, KCPD devoted resources to some of the highest-risk areas in the city. The recent analysis from Rutgers compares the year before we implemented RBP – March 15, 2018 to March 14, 2019 – to the year since – March 15, 2019 to March 14, 2020. It also looked at control areas with similar levels of environmental risk that did not receive the specific tasks based on the RBP concept. Note, this does not mean the KCPD did not provide police service or other necessary responses in these areas.

The RBP strategy focused on violent street crime (homicides, aggravated assaults, and robberies) in our four patrol divisions south of the Missouri River – Central, East, Metro, and South – because they have the highest incidence of these violent crimes.

Researchers found violent street crime decreased 24% overall when looking at all focus areas. In more practical terms, this means Kansas City had 165 fewer violent crime victims in the areas where RBP was used in just one year. The control areas saw only a combined 1% reduction in violent crime. These findings are also statistically significant, meaning we can have confidence the reductions are due to our efforts as opposed to random chance.

Here are the results for violent street crime in each of the four divisions:

· Central: 43% decrease
· East: 25% decrease
· Metro: 9% decrease
· South: 21% decrease (although to be fair, unlike Central, East, and Metro, researchers found much of the violent crime here was displaced nearby)

One of the best features of RBP is how customizable it is to different areas of the city. For example, laundromats were a prominent risk factor in Metro Patrol but not Central Patrol. RBP therefore provides insight to each patrol division about the most significant environmental risk factors in their communities so they can address them accordingly. This can include options such as asking the City’s Neighborhood Preservation division to assist with problem properties or even social service outreach.

Legal scholars such as Andrew Ferguson, an Assistant Professor of Law at the University of the District of Columbia, have also shown support for this approach because it helps strip away potential person-based bias given the focus on environmental risk. RBP is a civilly just way to deploy public resources, including those from the police.

In addition, the KCPD was able to achieve these impressive results with virtually no added cost. There was no overtime required, no grant funding needed, nor specialized squads to create. Instead, we were able to see meaningful crime reduction using our current resources in more strategic, focused ways.

This also has led to us building a fantastic new partnership with Rutgers University. We so appreciate their attention and expertise in helping us make our city safer.

We obviously still have a lot of work to do and are already planning ways to evolve the strategy and build on these early successes. We are beginning internal discussions about expanding on the areas where we are currently deploying RBP, as well as seeking opportunities to bring more resources from external partners to the table.

In the meantime, we now have quantifiable evidence Risk-Based Policing is a viable tool in reducing violent crime here in Kansas City. We are always looking at innovative ways to reduce crime and improve quality of life here at the KCPD, and RBP is proving to be a step in the right direction.

Send comments to kcpdchiefblog@kcpd.org. 

Police remain busy in Kansas City despite stay-at-home order

We’ve received a lot of inquiries about how all the changes in our society to stop the spread of the coronavirus are impacting crime in Kansas City. Other cities have seen crime fall across the board, but in Kansas City, it has been mixed.

First, I’d like to thank everyone in Kansas City who have been adhering to the stay-at-home order. We’re finding that the vast majority of people are abiding by it, which should help us flatten the curve and defeat this pandemic more quickly. It’s also helping keep us – your first responders – healthy and able to serve.

We need officers out on the street because violent crime here has not changed much with social distancing measures or the stay-at-home order. In the two weeks before the stay-at-home order, March 10-13, we had six homicides. We’ve had seven homicides in the two weeks since, March 24-April 6. Aggravated assaults increased from 61 in the two weeks before the order to 68 in the two weeks after the order.

As many expected, domestic violence assaults have increased a bit. If you are in an unsafe situation at home, please call 816-HOTLINE, which will connect you to domestic violence advocates in the Kansas City area. Domestic violence shelters and prevention agencies are still operating and providing services.

Below is a chart showing some major categories of violent crime in Kansas City so far this year and how the numbers have changed as COVID-19 spread and residents started staying home.

By contrast, many of our property crimes have fallen off. We attribute this to more people at home keeping an eye on their belongings all day. We’ve seen the largest decreases in crime in the categories of thefts from vehicles, stolen cars and shoplifting (mainly because most retailers are closed). Here is the chart showing our property crime trends for the first three months of 2020:

Overall, our calls for service have seen little change. Below are March numbers from last year compared to this year:  

	March 2019	March 2020	Difference
Calls received	78,399	77,128	-2%

The main goal of police is to keep you safe, which is why were are focusing our traffic enforcement efforts on reducing the excessive speed that has arisen with fewer cars on the road. Traffic officers are saying speeds are much higher than normal. They issued some of the following tickets last week:

* 123 mph in a 65 at 435/Wornall
* 79 in a 35 on Independence Ave.
* 76 in a 45 on Chouteau Bridge
* 133 in a 55 on I-29/Waukomis
* 86 in a 55 on 71 Hwy/31st St.

Again, this is why you'll still see us enforcing speed limits. From March 16-30, our injury crashes were up by 43% compared to the same time period last year. Officers are doing everything possible to reduce contact on these stops and are sanitizing before and after each one, as well as wearing masks.

I have no doubt this pandemic will continue to reshape our city in the short and long term, but looking at the numbers, the workload of police in Kansas City has remained pretty consistent. No matter what happens, KCPD will continue to respond to community needs. 

Send comments to kcpdchiefblog@kcpd.org.

To stop homicides, issues from trash to school attendance need to be addressed

Where the body of a woman in a trash bag was located last week near 49th & Brooklyn.

When a rash of homicides like we’ve experienced lately in Kansas City occurs, many ask what can be done to stop them. They’ll say homicides are rising and out of control. We recorded 109 homicides in 2015, up from a near-record low of 81 in 2014. But 2014 was an anomaly. Since we started keeping consistent annual homicide stats in 1969, Kansas City, Missouri, has only had 10 years in which we experienced fewer than 100 homicides. This is not a new problem. When the crack epidemic struck Kansas City in the late 1980s and early 1990s, things were much worse. There were more than 150 homicides in both 1992 and 1993.

Homicides began rising precipitously when I came onto the department as an officer in 1986. And you know what? We were talking about the exact same issues then. Although murders are significantly lower now than they were in the early 1990s, then, as now, many asked how to stop the bloodshed. To answer that, we have to know why homicides are happening. There is no one reason, and none of the reasons are new.

I spoke at this week’s Board of Police Commissioner’s meeting about one factor that’s really stood out to me lately: the conditions of the environment where these killings take place. Several of our department members did an in-depth analysis of homicides from 2011 to 2014. They responded to almost all of the crime scenes and reviewed case files. On a map, they found that 75 percent of Kansas City’s homicides – as well as 75 percent of all other violent crime – took place in a 34-square-mile area (10.8 percent of the city’s total land mass), bounded by St. John Avenue on the north, 85th Street on the South, Troost Avenue on the west and Topping Avenue on the East. In fact, 90 percent of all violent crimes in Kansas City were associated with this area, meaning victims or suspects of crimes came from there, even if the crime didn’t take place there.

But there are neighborhoods in those 34 square miles that don’t experience high levels of violent crime. What’s different about them from the neighborhoods around them? The analysis found the following:

· Fewer vacant homes

· Residences posted as vacant and unsafe were quickly demolished

· Higher concentrations of churches and places of worship

· Working streetlights

· Well-maintained, occupied properties

· Well-maintained vacant lots

· New or well-maintained sidewalks and roadways

· Minimal trash

· Higher home ownership vs. rental properties

· Extremely active community associations and neighborhood watch programs

In short, there is a sense of pride and ownership in those neighborhoods. People look out for one another. At recent homicide scenes, I’ve seen trash everywhere, overgrown brush, blighted vacant houses, busted sidewalks and more. I mentioned at the Board meeting earlier this week that I’d be willing to forego some of our department’s request for officers to fund the demolition of vacant houses. I say this because I understand the budgeting issues city government faces, and I’d like KCPD to be part of the solution. The City Manager and Council have tough decisions to make, and I want them to know the KCPD is happy to do whatever we can to help make our city safer. In fact, members of KCPD, the Kansas City No Violence Alliance, neighborhood volunteers and others have done several neighborhood clean-ups on the Prospect corridor to combat the types of environmental issues that lead to violent crime. Again, these are some of the same issues we talked about 30 years ago, and they still need addressing.

But there are so many other factors that contribute to violence. Many elected officials lately say the problem is guns. Yes, easy access to guns for people who shouldn’t have them is a problem. Without a doubt, guns have always been the leading cause of violent death in Kansas City. But guns are just a small piece of the issue. In seeking to stop homicides, we can’t focus solely on firearms, nor can we wait for someone else to do something that restricts access to them. We have to be creative and do what we can now. And by “we,” I don’t just mean the police. I mean the whole community.

From before people are born, things can be done that will keep them from heading down a path of violent behavior: proper prenatal care, early childhood education, parental involvement, staying in school until high school graduation. I would love to see the age for compulsory school attendance be increased from 16 to 18. Many of the violent crime suspects and victims we encounter have extensive juvenile criminal histories. Imagine how different those 34 square miles could be if they were filled with high school graduates! The Police Department certainly can’t do all those things. We have programs like the Police Athletic League that have turned kids’ lives around. Thanks to strong mentorship, those kids overcame significant obstacles. But there are so many more kids who need that kind of assistance than there are members of KCPD.

That’s where the community needs to step up: not just those living within those 34 square miles, but every other person in the Kansas City metropolitan area who is concerned about the safety and future of our city. Imagine what it would look like if everyone in this city helped clean up a neighborhood or mentor a young person in the urban core.

There are other issues that lead to violent crime, as well, and we’ve all heard many of them before. Mental illness and substance abuse are big ones. A person who would shoot into a home or vehicle full of people – sometimes children – clearly has a personality disorder and/or unhealthy thought patterns.

I’ve also seen that few of our violent crime suspects and victims tend to think very far outside of their own little world of family and associates. Not only do they miss the opportunities available to them outside of this small group, they miss the bigger picture entirely. They don’t believe in a higher power. They believe man is all there is. For me, that higher power is God, and serving him is my primary purpose. Without that belief in something bigger than them, the people involved in these violent crimes essentially live without purpose. As we have seen, that has incredibly destructive consequences.

I have responded to literally hundreds of homicide scenes in my career, and one of the most frustrating things to me is to hear the grieving family members and friends say, “We knew this was going to happen someday.” Our police department must continue to build relationships so these folks can trust us enough to come to us BEFORE anyone dies. If you fear for the life of someone because of the activity they’re involved in and the people they associate with, please tell us!

I’m willing to try anything that will make our city safer. I have requested money to hire 60 officers (we currently have 79 vacancies) in the upcoming budget. Human capital is important and needed, but it is not the answer to everything. Would ten officers working a single city block have as much impact as demolishing vacant houses, cleaning out trash and brush and improving infrastructure? I don’t know. But I think we all need to keep our minds open to whatever approach could decrease violence in Kansas City, Missouri, and then be willing to roll up our sleeves and help.

Send comments to kcpdchiefblog@kcpd.org. 

Area-specific violence is being addressed

Some recent acts of violence have prompted inquiries about possible rashes of crime in different parts of our city. I’ve heard concern about the old Northeast and the 18th and Vine entertainment district among other areas, lately. 

Let me assure you that no area of the city is having an abnormal outbreak of violent crime. As I discussed in my previous post, homicides and assaults with a weapon are up this year compared to the record-low last year, but we still remain well below where we have been for the last four decades. All other types of crime in the city are down.

This is not to say we aren’t doing everything we can to prevent and solve crime and make people feel safe. I’ve talked a lot about our prevention efforts on this blog, ranging from the Kansas City No Violence Alliance to deploying extra resources to hot spots. There are so many other things happening. Weekly intelligence-sharing meetings keep everyone in patrol and investigations abreast of the most serious crime trends, suspects and problem areas. We then deploy the necessary resources – from increased police presence to covert operations – to stop the criminal activity. These intel-sharing efforts have gone down to the patrol division level, too. Your local officers work with schools, businesses, prosecutors, non-profits, and most importantly, of course – residents – to identify patterns of crime and ways to prevent them. The officers who work in your neighborhood know the areas experiencing issues, and they usually know who is engaging in criminal behavior. They need your help to further identify those suspects and get them into custody. And detectives need community assistance to gather enough evidence for successful prosecution.

Let me share a recent success story of all these pieces working together. The Historic Northeast neighborhood was recently plagued by a burglar who broke into victims’ homes while they were still inside. Crime analysts and district officers recognized the pattern and deployed resources ranging from extra patrol to cameras to under-cover officers. Neighbors and East Patrol officers held a community meeting to discuss the problem, actions residents could take to prevent crime and how to assist police. More than 100 people came to the meeting. Afterward, the burglar was caught and linked to about 20 crimes. This was an excellent collaboration between residents and police.

Similar work is happening in the 18th and Vine area. Central Patrol Division, the Vice Unit and the City’s Regulated Industries are working with business owners in the entertainment district to address violence that has erupted there. Additional officers also will be deployed at busier times like nights and weekends. Everyone should feel safe patronizing Kansas City’s entertainment districts. They are an integral part of our culture and make our city unique. KCPD constantly works with the management of these districts, as well as the businesses located within them, to ensure a safe environment. We also have excellent partnerships with the private security agencies who work in these areas. Everyone’s goal is to provide a fun place where people can enjoy themselves without fear.

Once a crime takes place, we also devote significant resources to solving it. During the first two weeks of September, Kansas City experienced multiple homicides. The Violent Crime Division alone expended more than $60,000 on overtime those two weeks. That is 1,206.3 extra hours put in by a few squads of detectives in just two weeks to solve these cases. That does not include the work done by crime scene investigators, analysts at the Crime Lab, or specialized units like the Illegal Firearms Squad, Career Criminal Squad or the many others who are involved in investigating these cases, arresting suspects and submitting cases for prosecution. We also have victim advocates who work every day with violent crime victims and their surviving loved ones.

We have incredibly dedicated people who work around the clock to get dangerous people into custody and provide justice. They work long, hard hours to ensure those who commit acts of violence will be stopped before they can hurt others. And as always, they need the help of other segments of the community to make that happen.

Send comments to kcpdchiefblog@kcpd.org. 

New phase of Law Enforcement Resource Center is implemented

This week marks a big shift in how the Kansas City Missouri Police Department analyzes, responds to and prevents crime. October 3 will be the implementation of Phase II of our Law Enforcement Resource Center. (To get a background on the Law Enforcement Resource Center [LERC], check out this article in our Informant newsletter.)

For years we have been reacting to crime. The LERC takes us from reacting to interrupting crime. That is where we are now, primarily in relation to property crimes. The next goal is to forecast crime.

Phase I of the LERC  was completed in March of this year. That introduced the Real Time Crime Center and Crime Analysis Center. As soon as staffing becomes available, the Real Time Crime Center will become a 24/7/365 operation. Right now, it is staffed from 10 a.m. to 8 p.m. seven days a week. The jobs of the detectives in this center are to keep an eye on calls officers on the street are responding to and provide as much information as they can about the people and locations officers are encountering. They also will take intelligence that patrol officers gather from their relationships with community members and see how it relates to unsolved crimes or crimes being planned. Because of the Real Time Crime Center, officers and detectives don’t have to spend nearly the time at their car computers or desks looking up information. The Center will do that for them. The goal to get that information back to officers and detectives is less than two minutes. The officers and detectives, then, can be out working the streets, which is where they have the most impact.

The Crime Analysis Center brought together the analysts from our six patrol divisions into one central location for the first time in memory. We have given them training and technology to track property crime patterns across the metropolitan area. This has led to major breakthroughs that would not have been possible before. We are catching the bad guys and stopping them from committing more crimes. This does not just affect property crimes. Many criminals are involved in both property and violent crimes.

Now Phase II is coming. This will bring an administrative unit and the Perpetrator Information Center together. As LERC commander Major Mike Corwin likes to say, the crime analysts are the “what.” The Perpetrator Information Center is the “who” and “why.” They gather intelligence on violent criminals to link them to the crimes they’ve committed and each other. Their input into our crime analysis software development is invaluable.

Having all of these resources under one roof is unprecedented, here and across the nation. We are leading the country in developing proprietary intelligence software that harvests data from multiple law enforcement sources, analyzes it and gets it back out to those who need it at a rapid rate. We are breaking down the silos of information that used to exist, and Kansas City will be safer for it.

Send comments to kcpdchiefblog@kcpd.org.